Watch Magic Johnson in the studio on TNT, and he will inevitably talk about "winning time". It's the time of the game where the greats overcome fatigue. They defeat their opponents and leave them slumped in a wilted pose for the local newspaper.
In my first sports blog entry, I mentioned how the Phoenix Suns wore down my Cleveland Cavaliers and overtook them in the 4th quarter with superior depth. At a glance, it would seem that the Cavs were beaten mentally as well as physically. However, this may not be entirely true. Perhaps the Suns are the fools in this scenario. Are they the ones being duped in the bigger picture?
The Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks currently hold the second best and best record in the NBA respectively. However I must make the following...
Bold Prediction: Neither the Suns nor the Mavs will make the NBA finals.
See, the reason that Magic and Michael and Bird all took over in the 4th quarter was because they didn't play all out for the first 36 minutes. They had energy left over; they weren't wiped out. Teams will often get caught up in the hype, come out blazing, and have nothing left over for the 4th quarter. Early moderation is key.
After a long week of (avoiding) school work, I like to enjoy my weekends with a touch of alcohol (Read: I drink 'till desk lamps look attractive). A modest pre-game of beer or liquor before a party or sporting event is a good way to avoid small talk and get straight to the "The Red Sox have potential on paper, but there's no way all those 'if's' will work out" or the "I'm in love with you fiancee, and I think that she's having my baby" conversations. However, frontloading your whole night on the pre-game will ultimately leave you oblivious and usually belligerent. The next day, one of your buddies is only going to be bitter because he had to babysit you while you called him a "cocksmoke" and everyone else scored hookups.
Or you could take it easy in the outset.
Now, being Magic and Michael and Bird meant not having to play in 5th gear the entire game. They were more than competitive for the first three periods without going all out. However, the team with the most energy at the end of the game is usually going to win it. The guy with the legs at the end to make the winning jump shot will. Being the best doesn't always mean having the best game - sometimes it means playing the smartest game.
Aim to be the guy with enough stomach left to take tequila shots with the cleavage that had to work late and arrived sober. That guy has the easy road to a buxom paradise.
So why shouldn't we apply this theory to an entire season?
Case 1: Two years in a row, the St. Louis Cardinals fielded one of the best teams in baseball. They won 105 games in 2004, barely made the World Series, and were swept by the Red Sox. The following year, they won 100 games and took the division, but fell to the Houston Astros in the NLCS. The Astros occupied the slot below the Cardinals in their own division that year.
Tony LaRussa took flak for pushing his team to hard in the regular season and wearing them out before the playoffs.
This past season, the Cardinals crawled into the playoffs with an 83-78 record. They outlasted a better San Diego Padres team, snuck past the severely better New York Mets, and finally became David to the Detroit Tigers' Goliath. Yes, it was a Cinderella Story.
Except, maybe it wasn't. The Cardinals have arguably the best hitter and pitcher in baseball in Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter and they played as such. Role players like So Taguchi and Jeff Suppan each came through when they needed to, and the rested team with more potential than anyone realized prevailed. The Cardinals didn't kill themselves in the regular season (partially done by accident because of injury) and they won it all.
Case 2:In the 2005/2006 season, the Indianapolis Colts were the best team in football. Tony Dungy led them to within inches of joining the '72 Dolphins as the only NFL team to go undefeated in a Season (Shawne "Juicy Juice" Merriman was the key to their downfall) They had an excellent defense - their only weak point in past seasons, and they entered the playoffs with the best record in the NFL.
However, The 6th seeded Pittsburgh Steelers proved to be too much for the Colts, and the game was decided in a close 4th quarter. Pittsburgh, too, had suffered injuries during the season that forced some of their players into restricted duty and saved them from the chaos of gameday. Once again, the rested team in the playoffs prevailed.
This year, the Colts got off to a hot start once again, but they didn't continue on that path. After their 9th win(what it took to make the playoffs this year), it seemed the Colts were satisfied with their regular season. The puttered into the post season going 3-4 the rest of the season.
But a 4th seed would not stop the Colts from making it to the Super Bowl. They overcame the Kansas City Chiefs, who they were supposed to lose to. They beat the Baltimore Ravens, who they were supposed to lose to. And they dodged the New England Patriots, who they are always supposed to lose to. The Colts beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI and received their title.
Tony Dungy, I suspect, stopped his intensive preparation for each week after the Colts had won nine games. Playoff preparations were made, and team preferred rest to winning every week.
Case 3: One season ago, the Detroit Pistons had run away with the regular season. They won 64 games - 12 more than any other team in the conference and one better than the San Antonio Spurs. In the first round, they dispatched the Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games, and moved on to face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.
The Cavs had just come off an exhausting yet historic series with the Washington Wizards in the previous round. The Cavs, tired after a tough fought series, came out sluggishly. Detroit dominated LeBron and company in the first two games, but the Cavs weren't going down without a fight. Cleveland won the 3rd and 4th games at home and then beat the Pistons on the road to go up 3-2 in the series. Detroit was able to pull together and win the next two, but not at a huge cost to their stamina.
The Pistons were in sludge after the series with Cleveland. Despite winning 12 more games than the Heat during the regular season, the Pistons were soundly defeated by Miami who had quickly dispatched the New Jersey Nets in 5 games the previous round. Miami went on to win the NBA Championship because they paced themselves correctly and had all the stamina they needed for winning time.
Paying credence to winning time is more crucial in the NBA than in any other sport. In all three sports, the regular season is 6 months long give or take a few weeks. However, MLB and the NFL wrap their playoffs up in one month's time. The NBA Playoffs (thanks to the idiocy of having 16 teams) last 3 months. No where is energy conservation more important than the NBA.
A team has to go into the post season ready to shift into high gear. Once they're in the post season, they have to use that high gear to dispatch teams quickly and rest between each series. This is how championships are made.
Before you get to the party, you need to be closer to sober than drunk. True, no girls will talk to you at all if you haven't had a few already, but you won't be able to talk back if your tounge is securely fastened to the roof of your mouth. Plus, if you're too drunk to play pong or flip cup, well, then you have rely on your wits. And you don't have wits.
Phoenix started the season going 3-6. Dallas started the season going 0-4. Thereafter, both teams shifted into their high gear and have been dominant ever since. Neither Phoenix nor Dallas will have the stamina necessary to compete in the playoffs. The San Antonio Spurs, on the other hand, seem a team that isn't quite playing at its highest level. With veteran coach Greg Papovich at the helm, I think it's highly likely that the Spurs have not yet begun to fight, and they won't for another couple of months.
Based on my own expert analysis of watching my beloved Cavaliers on a regular basis, I would say the Cavs are also not playing at their highest level. A lesson that was clearly learned last year as LeBron completely ran out of gas against Detroit. Some say that LeBron is playing non-chalantly these days. I know this to be impossible. He takes heat from the media saying he's not playing hard enough. I say he's not playing hard as well, but that's not a put down. He's smart, and he'll have what he needs for winning time. Jordan learned it the same way. After he averaged 37 in a season, he realized he couldn't win every game on his own and win in the playoffs. A few years later, the Bulls had their first championship.
So I ask you, fans, what would you rather have? A top seeded team in the NBA playoffs, or a fourth seeded team that runs the table and wins it all? No one will remember the difference between winning 55 games and 45 games if there is a parade downtown when the season is over.
Besides, if there's another gent at the party talking to a young lady you've found yourself interested in, it's always better to be less drunk than he is. Showing genuine concern for his inebriated condition while simultaneously labeling him too weak to hold his liquor can only keep the ball in your court.
As for the Mavs and Suns, well, I would suggest you start losing. It'd really be better for everyone, including yourselves. Keeping a moderate pace is much less taxing.
Once the stamina is gone, the champagne chilling in the locker room (or dorm room) will never get opened.
Tschüs!