Spectating Savant

The NBA playoffs are upon us. And as sports fans, it is our duty to stand up and take note of the playoffs. That is, unless, of course, those playoffs are played on ice and the players are using sticks. Those playoffs are still on probation from my attention until A)The Penguins make the Finals or B) Hockey gets more than 3 minutes per hour of Sportscenter. Which reminds me of a rant I need to make before I get to the playoffs...

Fuck Sportscenter and Fuck ESPN!!!!

The fact that there has been at least 4 hours worth of NFL coverage on ESPN a day since the NFL season ended is completely and totally unacceptable. IT'S FUCKING RIDICULOUS!!!! Baseball is well underway, the NHL playoffs are well underway, the NBA playoffs are poised to begin, and we're still geting 8 hours of NFL coverage a day! NFL Live still gets an entire hour. Sportscenter special editions devoted entirely to NFL Draft coverage are dominating the air waves! I can't even begin to describe the insanity of this!

Where is Baseball Tonight? Where is NBA Fastbreak? Why haven't I heard from Barry Melrose making enough to feed his family? Do they still run NASCAR races on Sundays?

Sidney Crosby recently became the youngest player ever to win the NHL scoring title, Kobe Bryant seems to puts up 50 w/o breaking a sweat, Alex Rodiriguez is having a historically good April, but the only fucking person I'm hearing about is fucking Brady Quinn!!! What has he done at the pro level? FUCKING NOTHING!!!!!!!

As a general guideline, I don't drop the F-Bomb unless it's completely necessary to make my point. Well, I just dropped it a half dozen times in 3 paragraphs. Try to find it anywhere else in any of my blogs. Somebody get me a number to call or an email address so I can complain to the ESPN programmers that I am tired of all this NFL coverage. There is absolutely no reason for this, and it is ridiculous. The draft is two weeks away, and I'm already sick of football.

So help me God, if this continues after the draft is over, I'm going to find a way to stop it.

End Rant

ESPN is the Worldwide leader in sports, and I hate to bash them, but this is the worst programming I've ever seen. It's like being served hamburgers when you KNOW there's steak in the freezer. With the addition of Arena football, how much of one sport can this country take? This is too much if you ask me.

So let's get back to the NBA playoffs....

The playoffs start on Saturday. Predictions are in order. I'll break down each matchup, progress through the playoffs, and crown an NBA Champion. Why even bother watching the Playoffs? ESPN will spend 6 hours a night next week breaking down Round 6 of the NFL Draft. What will Oakland do with their precious 6th round pick? Let Mel Kiper analyze it for the next 30 minutes...

Let's get goin with the NBA Playoffs...

Eastern Conference: Round 1

(1)Detroit Pistons vs. (8)Orlando Magic

• Marquee Player:Chauncey Billups, Pistons
• Key Matchup:Chris Webber vs. Dwight Howard
• Difference Maker:Rip Hamilton, Pistons
• Coaching Edge:Detroit, Flip Saunders

The Detroit Pistons are the Mr. Cellophane of this year's NBA Season. They very quietly won 53 games in what is probably the worst Conference in the history of the league. This makes them a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. Veteran Chris Webber decided he still liked playing basketball when he came to Detroit and has seemed his old self again. Matching him up down low with Dwight Howard is certainly a case of Youth vs. Experience. If every player in the NBA was thrown into a brawl and Shaq was the officiator, I would take Dwight Howard to win it all. Take notice of his physique during the series and tell me if he's not the most impressive physical specimen in the NBA.

The Pistons are too good for the Magic. They've been here before, they play good defense, and they make big shots. Howard is the only one on the floor that can impact a game, and at this point in his career he's no more than a role player on a real championship game.
Results:Pistons Sweep, 4-0

(2)Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (7)Washington Wizards

• Marquee Player:LeBron James
• Key Matchup:Mike Brown vs. Patrick J Dobson or Terrence Howard vs. Eddie Jordan
• Difference Maker:Ira Newble
• Coaching Edge:Washington, Eddie Jordan

Gilbert Arenas is out for the playoffs. Caron Butler is out for the playoffs. The Wizards were in free-fall coming in. There's not even any real reason to play these games. Can you sweep in 3 games? Can the other team just give up? Results:Cavs Sweep, 4-0

(3)Toronto Raptors vs. (6)New Jersey Nets

• Marquee Player:Vince Carter
• Key Matchup:Chris Bosh vs. Mikki Moore
• Difference Maker:Jason Kidd
• Coaching Edge:New Jersey, Lawrence Frank

The experts have this highlighted as the Upset Special for the first round of the NBA playoffs. This expert is not so certain. The Nets have all the leadership with playoff veteran Jason Kidd leading the way, but Vince Carter is the huge wild card in all of this.

He's never been a completely consistent player, and he's got to go back to Toronto and play in front of 20,000+ fans that hate his guts. A constant flow of boos will be rained down upon Vince Carter whenever he has the ball. That coupled with Chris Bosh waiting for him at the basket will be sure to keep Carter at the perimeter shooting jump shots. If those shots are falling (and in Toronto, they won't be), the Nets will be fine. New Jersey is fighting an uphill battle.

The only hope for the Nets is that Mikki Moore can score on Chris Bosh and keep him away from the basket. If a lane opens up and Carter can get to the rim, the entire face of the series changes. I don't see that happening. Vince Carter is going to shy away from this series like a white family from a Popeye's in Compton.
Results:Raptors Win, 4-2

(4)Miami Heat vs. (5)Chicago Bulls

• Marquee Player:5/8 of Dwayne Wade
• Key Matchup:Shaquille O'Neal vs. (Ben Wallace, PJ Brown, Tyrus Thomas)
• Difference Maker:Dwayn Wade's Left Shoulder, Shaq's Stamina
• Coaching Edge:Miami, Pat Riley

This is certainly the toughest call of the first round. For those that have been doing coke and mushrooms for the last 350 or so days, the Bulls and the Heat played in the first round of the playoffs last year. The Bulls stole two games from the Heat in Chicago, and it looked like the Shaq/Flash Co. might be in trouble for a second.

The Bulls added Ben Wallace to hopefully neutralize Shaq, and now everyone gets to see if that's the case. PJ Brown and Tyrus Thomas are no slouches, but they certainly don't match up with Shaq alone. However, they should be able to keep the pressure on him and keep his energy levels bone dry. The big man took on a lot of the work load when D-Wade went down with the left shoulder separation. I'm not convinced he has the energy to make another big playoff run.

The biggest question mark, however, is Dwayne Wade's left shoulder. If he goes down, the Heat lose. He knows this. Shaq knows this. Pat Riley knows this. Thus, Dwayne Wade will be playing scared the entire series. That is, if he's smart.

However, for those that actually watch the first 3 quarters of any Heat game featuring Wade, they know he doesn't really start to play until the 4th. Generally, he's in third or even second gear before the 4th quarter. If Shaq's tired, he's going to have to do a lot more than that, and that's not how this Heat team wins.

Too many question marks for the Heat against the currently much more stable Bulls who have home court advantage. The same home court advantage that supplied 6 NBA Championships. Don't think those people have forgotten how to be championship caliber fans.
Results:Bulls Win, 4-3

Western Conference: Round 1

(1)Dallas Mavericks vs. (8)Golden State Warriors

• Marquee Player:Dirk Nowitzki
• Key Matchup:Baron Davis vs. Jason Terry
• Difference Maker:Jerry Stackhouse
• Coaching Edge:Dallas, Avery Johnson

Baron Davis has been getting all kinds of love lately. And with good reason. The last two weeks of the season, he's been every bit as good as Steve Nash - giving the Warriors 18 pts, 7 assists, and 2.4 steals a game. You won't see Nash producing on both ends of the floor like that. Plus, the Warriors swept the season series this year, 3-0. They Warriors have the Mavs' number.

And they'll be beaten soundly.

Avery Johnson has had the Mavs playing at the top of their game all season long. They play defense, they run the floor, they work well in the half court, and they exploit mismatches. Whether it's Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, or Josh Howard, someone is always coming up with the extra slack to help Dirk get it done. Perhaps the Mavs have been playing at their full potential, and they have nothing more to give in the playoffs - no extra oomph that will truly overrun teams - but that'll still be enough to decisively defeat the Warriors. After the Bay Area rejoices a Game 1 blow out, the Mavs will win the next 4.
Results:Mavs Win, 4-1

(2)Phoenix Suns vs. (8)Los Angeles Lakers

• Marquee Player:Kobe Bryant
• Key Matchup:Kobe Bryant vs. The Suns
• Difference Maker:Kobe Bryant
• Coaching Edge:Phoenix, Mike D'Antoni (Unless Phil Jackson escapes out of the mountains and kills that robot that's been on the sideline for him all year)

This series is very simple. Kobe scores 50 points a game, or the Lakers lose. With Raja Bell, Shawn Marion, and Amare Stoudamire playing defense for the Suns, the Eagle County Casanova is going to have his hands full. However, I give the Lakers a better shot of winning then they had last year. There was a better team around The Mamba last year, granted, but I think that's actually worse for the Lakers. Kobe needs to be the man going out there every night. He needs to feel like he has to score 50, or the Lakers are going to lose.

In 1965, Jerry West set the record for scoring in a Playoff series by scoring 46.3 ppg agains the Baltimore Bullets. In 1988 and 1992, Michael Jordan went over 45 ppg agains the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat respectively. If the Lakers are going to win this series, Kobe is going to have to overcome both of those performances. If he does that, all of the hotel clerks in the world won't be able to blind us from who the best player in the NBA really is.

But he won't.
Results:Suns Win, 4-1

(One more thing - mostly in 1965, but certainly in the late 80's and early 90's, there were far fewer rules governing defenses. We should have seen a 50 ppg series by now, right? The Logo scored all his points WITHOUT the 3 point line! And I haven't seen a single 60 point game from Kobe yet? It's got to happen this series, or we'll never see it.)

(3)San Antonio Spurs vs. (6)Denver Nuggets

• Marquee Player:Carmelo Anthony
• Key Matchup:Allen Iverson vs. Tony Parker
• Difference Maker:Tim Duncan
• Coaching Edge:San Antonio, Gregg Popovich

Outside of the prospect of The Mamba trying to break 60, this has got to be the most intriguing series of the first round. Look at all the star power involved in this series - Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginoboli. The only playoff series in my life time that compare to this were those in the early 90s that featured Jordan. I remember being very excited for Jordan-Pippen-Grant vs. Price-Daugherty-Nance. Yes, I had a litte bit more riding on that series because it was the Cavs and because I was still thinking about this....

But from a purely objective standpoint, looking just at the players involved, this is the most exciting first round series I've seen in years. And the matchup is really quite simple. San Antonio went 1-10 this season when their opponent scored at least 100 points. If AI and 'Melo find a way to get into triple digits against the Spurs at least twice this series, I believe they can take it. The only problem with this is that George Karl has yet to show he can get those two playing well together consistently. I mean, Iverson was traded to Denver in December, and that was huge! How much have you heard about it since then? Almost nada.

Iverson has to feel his Championshp Hour Glass is running short on sand. He'll help propel the Nuggets to 2 wins, but this Spurs team is just too good.
Results:Spurs win, 4-2

(4)Utah Jazz vs. (5)Houston Rockets

• Marquee Player:Tracy McGrady
• Key Matchup:Yao Ming vs. Carlos Boozer
• Difference Maker:Deron Williams
• Coaching Edge:Utah, Jerry Sloan

I hate Carlos Boozer. results:Rockets win, 4-1

Eastern Conference: Round 2

Cavs over Raptors in 5

LeBron too good for Raps.

Pistons over Bulls in 7

Experience beats youth for the last time.

Western Conference: Round 2

Spurs over Suns in 7

Defense contains an exhausted Steve Nash.

Mav over Rockets in 7

Tmac plays insane, but can't overcome Dirk and Co.

Eastern Conference Finals

Cavs over Pistons in 6

Lebron gets revenge over Pistons running on fumes from Bulls Series.

Spurs over Mavs in 7

Epic series that has Spurs shifting into 5th gear and Dallas completely out of steam.

I hate to be a homer, but I'm not going back on my analysis from February. It was correct then, and it's correct now. I promise you I would not be picking this way if the seeding had been any different.

NBA Finals

Cavs over Spurs in 7

LeBron gets his first ring. The Spurs play out of their minds just to get out of the West, and they end up completely gassed for the Finals. The Cavs have the softer side of the East to waltz through, and they look fresh as daisies coming into the Finals. Sasha Pavolvic and Anderson Varejao establish themselves as Knights in the King's Court. LeBron, playing on fresh legs because he stood around for half the season, goes for 35 a game. The Cavs beat the Spurs 7 times in one season.

Tschüs!

P.S. If Cleveland doesn't get the #2 seed, they lose to Miami in the first round and the Bulls hoist the trophy for the 7th time.