Remember last spring when the Cavs were in the playoffs and I was writing about nearly every moment? Have you asked yourself why I haven't been writing about the Indians nearly as much?
It's very simple. I love the Indians. They are my baby. The emotional weight I carry with this team is on par with a mother and her child. And I don't even mean a Hollywood mother who's trying to resurrect her shattered career by getting preggers - sired by some teen beat flavor of the month.
If the Cavs would have won the Championship last spring, I would have gotten really excited, jumped up and down, gotten really drunk for a whole weekend, and then shrugged the whole thing off a few days later and watched the Tribe finish off the month of June.
Now, if the Indians were to ever win the World Series (this year, next year, 50 years from now), I would break down and cry. Not just slumping over my couch, a trickle of joy running down my cheak. No. I would be hysterically sobbing on the ground in the fetal position, part laughing, part crying, part speaking in tounges like a pentacostal church service.
This emotional weight, combined with the fact that I drank the Kool-Aid like the rest of the country and dared to believe that the Yankees had even the slightest shot in the series against the Tribe, is why I haven't been near my computer. I was just too amped up to write.
But now, the Wahoo Warriors are going to the American League Championship Series, and there really wasn't a doubt about that happening. I mean, the Yankees were reliant on Chien-Ming Wang to be their stud! Let's take a look at his two lines in this series...
Game 1:4.2 IP 9H 8 ER 4 BB 2K 2HR 15.43 ERA 3.09 WHIP
Game 4:1 IP 5H 4 ER 0 BB 0K 1HR 19.06 ERA 5.00 WHIP
So much for being a stud. I'm confident that I could go out there and put up similar numbers. And then there was Andy Pettitte, man, what a performance on Friday night....until you consider this...
Game 2 Line: 6.1 IP 7 H 2 BB 1.475 WHIP
The best pitcher they sent out there let nearly one and a half men on base per inning! It was only by sheer luck that some of those hits weren't strung together. You don't let 9 men on base over six innings and call it a dominant performance. I went to that game, and Pettitte did absolutely everything he could except pitch to keep himself in the game. He walked around the mound, talked to Jorge, washed Jeter's hair, pierced A-Rod's left ear - I mean, the guy worked slower than an intern at an investment bank coming off a 3-day bender (for the record, I have no idea what that is like).
I can't believe I was taken. I should have trusted myself. I mean, I said it would happen! Way back in April!
So now we're sitting on the brink of a true baseball phenomenon: Joe Torre may lose his job. Seriously, that's the head story on ESPN.com today. I mean, the East Coast bias has reached shameless proportions. Let's go through the story lines that would be more appropriate...
Beckett vs. Sabathia
These are the starters for Game 1 of the ALCS. THE BEST TWO PITCHERS IN BASEBALL!!! When is the last time that the absolute best two players at their position went head to head with so much on the line? Forget baseball for a second. In any sport, when is the last time the two most dominating prescences in the game went head to head in a playoff semifinal? There should be 5 or 6 days worth of analysis to consider here. Unfortunately, all we'll get is 20 minutes on Baseball Tonight between the funeral for Joe Torre's job and speculation about whether A-Rod will make 35 or 40 million dollars next year.
The Young Blood
Fausto Carmona, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Grady Sizemore, Dustin Pedroia, Rafael Perez, Manny Delcarmen, Franklin Gutierrez, Jacoby Ellsbury, etc etc. I have never in my life seen an abundance of young talent in a series so big as this one. Why isn't this being talked about more? We droll over Roger Clemens, who on Sunday looked like the old lions on the Discovery channel that get evicted from the pride after a young lion tears him apart, but what of this young talent? This is one of the biggest stories of the year. And what about Indians manager Eric Wedge? The guy is 39 years old and his team just soundly defeated 67 year old Joe Torre's team.
Mark Shapiro and Theo Epstein
Say what you will, but there are no two men who are better at building a baseball team than these guys. And after Epstein traded away Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez and signed J.D. Drew for $70M, I feel pretty good about my team's GM. At the end of the day, these two guys put together the most post-season ready teams in the big leagues. Shapiro did it for a scant $61 million! These men are masters of their craft, and neither will be talked about as much as the inept Brian Cashman.
And that's really what this series comes down to. It is the battle of the GMs. Neither Wedge nor Francona are exceptional in-game managers. I don't think anybody fills out a lineup card like Eric Wedge, and Francona probably creates the best clubhouse atmosphere in baseball, but the positioning and bargaining Epstein and Shapiro have conducted over the past two years will determine more than anything who wins the World Series. Let's take a look at the rosters...
Lineup
| Cleveland Indians | Boston Red Sox | ||
Name
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BA/OBP/HR/RBI
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Name
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BA/OBP/HR/RBI
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The Red Sox are not nearly as overpowering as the Yankees, but they are far more top heavy. For example, we're not going to be seeing Dustin Pedroia lead off any games with a HR a la Johnny Damon. However, we can expect that Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz won't have their hands around their throats for the entire series like Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, and Bobby Abreu did.
The Indians have a more complete lineup. Case Blake at the number nine spot produced as many RBI(78) as Grady Sizemore at the number one spot. Both were more than their Red Sox counterparts. However, Ortiz, Ramirez, and Lowell combined for 325 RBI. The Indians 3-4-5 hitters, Hafner/Martinez/Garko, combined for 275. Both of those numbers could have been significantly higher if Hafner and Ramirez wouldn't have fallen off so drastically from better years.
In any case, the Red Sox lineup is not nearly as imposing as that of the Yankees. If the 2-6 hitters from Boston perform like the 2-6 hitters of New York, expect to see this thing finished in Cleveland early.
Rotation
| Cleveland Indians | Boston Red Sox | ||
Name
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ERA/WHIP/Ks
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Name
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ERA/WHIP/Ks
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Here is where the Indians become top heavy. Carmona and Sabathia are machines at the top of the rotation. Not only did they dominate with the numbers shown, but they also combined to throw 456 innings pitched this year. Compare that to 404 from Dice-K and Beckett.
Terry Francona has positioned the Red Sox rotation craftily. Beckett and Daisuke will be staggered around Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield will be pulling anchor. Schilling will be empowered by the Fenway Faithful, and that allows the Japanese import to pitch in the unfriendly confines of Jacob's Field.
These rotations are pretty even. Both clubs have crafty veterans who have done it before in Byrd and Schilling. However, both those guys could have an off-night executing and give up 6 runs. The same goes for Wakefield and Westbrook, with a slight advantage to the knuckleballer because he's been here before. Of course, he has done this before too...
(Note: that was the best video I could find of the occasion. How crappy are Yankees fans that they don't have a hundred crisp versions of the actual homerun on youtube?)
Bullpens
| Cleveland Indians | Boston Red Sox | ||
Name
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WHIP/Kper9/S
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Name
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WHIP/Ks/S
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This series really is the battle of arms. How does Eric Gagne have 10.61 Ks/9 AND a 1.88 WHIP? How is that possible? How does Joe Borowski have a 1.43 WHIP and 45 saves?
Then there is Jonathan Papelbon. Tribe fans, if you're seeing his face, then it's not a good thing. The goal for the Indians in this series is to not see Jonathan Papelbon. The Tribe just had trouble with Mariano Rivera on short rest. There is no way in hell they're hitting Papelbon.
Also, if Aaron Fultz is in the ballgame for any other reason then to pitch to a left handed part of the lineup, then feel free to curse Eric Wedge's name.
After watching the Yankees nearly get through the series with just two above average relief pitchers, it seems likely that the Borowski-Lewis-Betancourt-Perez and the Papelbon-Okajima-Delcarmen-Lopez combos are more than enough to get through a seven game series.
Whoever gets the early lead in these games is most often going to win. I know Red Sox Nation is used to late inning heroics, but you can throw that one out in this series. The bullpens on both sides are far too dominant. Whoever gets to the starter first is going to win the ballgame.
Let's look at a few more facets of the series.
Player Tribe fans are afraid of, but shouldn't be: David Ortiz
Ortiz is a big swinging lefty. He's got a good eye, but is susceptable to the low strike in the dirt. C.C. Sabathia is a big pitching lefty, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook are sinker ball specialists, and Aaron Fultz and Rafael Perez eat lefties for breakfast.Player Tribe fans will boo unmercilessly, and pay for it severely: Manny Ramirez
This is kind of the other side of the coin. We have the pitching to shut down Ortiz. We do not have the pitching to shut down Ramirez. Maybe we can convince him this is 1997 and he's playing for the Indians. We need a big fat helping of Manny being Manny for the next 11 days in every way but at the plate.Stuff Red Sox Nation understands about the Indians or Baseball: Nothing
Are these not the worst fans in baseball? 14 million strong and I bet if you asked 12 million of them to name the entire starting rotation of their favorite team, they couldn't do it. Last friday there was probably 1 Yankee fan for every 15 Indians fans. When the series comes back to the Jake after the first two games in Boston, you can expect that the ratio will be down to 1:10 or 1:8. And not one of them will understand why Big Papi isn't hitting or why they don't bring Jonathan Papelbon into the game after the 6th inning.Key for the Tribe: The 3-run homer
A buddy of mine turned me on to Earl Weaver a few weeks ago. He was basically the same manager as Eric Wedge. Weaver believed in big innings rather than organizing a hit and run or bunting to give up outs. Wedge believes similarly (although his bunting of Asdrubal Cabrera in big situations makes me think he's softening to small ball). In any event, the way the pitching stacks up in this series, Tribe fans can expect to win any game that invovles a 3-run homer by one of their hitters.Key for the BoSox: Getting to Papelbon
For most of the season, the Red Sox bullpen seemed unstoppable. Okajima was inhumane in the early going. As things went along, however, and Eric Gagne became relevant the way no one wants to be relevant, the BoSox bullpen has seemed more and more susceptable to blowing leads. The Sox will need their starters to go deep, and they will need solid outings from Delcarmen and Okajima to get to the man who currently defines the word closer in the American League.Prediction
Look for Beckett and Sabathia to each go 1-1 in this series pitching against each other. I expect Carmona will beat Schilling soundly. Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd will unlikely be able to get around Red Sox hitting for too long. It's very strange that Tim Wakefield becomes the wild card in all of this. Game 4 will be the most pivotal of the series, and Byrd vs. Wakefield could go many different ways. This is how I see it going...Game 1: Red Sox, 4-1Beckett has another strong outing and Sabathia can't find his slider in Fenway. Patient Tribe hitting gives Beckett the boot in the 7th despite not giving up a run. The Tribe rallies against Delcarmen in the 7th and Okajima again in the 8th, but is unable to get more than 1 run. Papelbon comes in with one out in the 8th and pitches a 5-out save.
Game 2: Indians, 6-4 The Tribe rolls against Schilling, putting up 6 runs in 5 innings as Francona refuses to go to his bullpen early. The offense cools off in the late innings, but Carmona pounds through the Red Sox lineup. Victory seems assured until Carmona tires late and gives up two runs in the 8th. Joe Borowski comes in after Betancourt for the ninth inning. Borowski gives up two runs and nearly surrenders the game before JD Drew flies out to right with the bases loaded to end the game.
Game 3: Red Sox, 10-8 The series goes back to the Jake where neither Westbrook nor Matsuzaka have their best stuff. They are belted all around the ballpark as the high wall in left field begins to resemble the cratered surface of the moon. Grady Sizemore makes 3 great plays in center countered by similar acrobatics from Coco Crisp. The game is tied at 8 late in the game. David Ortiz draws a walk from Rafael Perez and Manny Ramirez takes him deep because he doesn't understand he's not suppposed to be able to hit Rafael Perez. Papelbon rushes in to silence the Tribe bats.
Game 4: Indians, 1-0In a shocking pitcher's duel, Paul Byrd and Tim Wakefield each don't surrender a run for 7 innings. Wakefield tries to sneak a fastball past Casey Blake in the top of the 8th, and Blake hits it out of the park. Joe Borowski loads the bases in the 9th, but gets JD Drew to ground into a double play.
Game 5: Indians, 1-0In a not-so-shocking pitcher's duel, C.C. Sabathia finally finds his slider and pitches a 9 inning, 12 K, complete game shutout. Beckett is equally as impressive, but gives up a homer to Franklin Gutierrez early to cost him the game.
Game 6: Red Sox, 4-2Carmona looks like he's going to shutdown the Red Sox yet again until he surrenders 4 runs in the 5th inning before finally getting JD Drew to ground out and kill the rally. Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, and Rafael Betancourt come in to stop the bleeding, but Schilling has finally found his stuff. Despite a 2-run homer by Victor Martinez off Gagne after a Hafner walk in the 8th, Papelbon comes in again to end it with a 6-out save.
Game 7: Indians, 5-4In a shocking turn of events, Alyssa Milano and Dane Cook inadvertently burn Fenway Park to the ground while they're driving to the game. Cook runs a gas truck off the road on the Massachusetts turnpike while he and Alyssa Milano fight over the rear-view mirror to adjust their pink Red Sox hats. Game 7 is moved back to Cleveland where the Indians faithful will their team to a win in a game that sees C.C. Sabathia and Paul Byrd come out of the bullpen. JD Drew pops up to Jhonny Peralta for the last out.
Sorry, Red Sox Nation, but this is the start of a new era. I will leave you with this...
Be prepared for plenty of this...
Go Tribe.
Tschüs!